Bearish
Coffee futures decline as Brazil's record harvest eases supply concerns
Recent market movements indicate a bearish trend for coffee futures. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported a significant 15.4% increase in the Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) in July 2026, averaging 287.26 US cents per pound. This surge was driven by supply concerns, adverse weather conditions in Brazil, and shrinking Arabica inventories. However, the arrival of Brazil's 2025/26 coffee crop has eased these supply concerns, leading to a correction in prices.
Key points
- July 2026 saw a 15.4% increase in the ICO Composite Indicator Price, driven by supply concerns and adverse weather in Brazil.
- The arrival of Brazil's 2025/26 coffee crop has eased supply concerns, leading to a correction in coffee futures prices.
- Brazil's 2026/27 coffee harvest is projected to be a record 77.2 million bags, potentially balancing supply and demand dynamics.
Sources
- Supply concerns fuel coffee price rallyGlobal Coffee Report · September 16, 2026
- Coffee Faces Fresh Supply PressureADMIS Singapore · September 18, 2026
- Arabica December contract down 5.5% weekly to 295.60 cents: Coffee market caught in a tug-of-war between Brazil's record 77.2 million bag harvest and 26-year low ICE stocksJIRO · September 7, 2026
AI-generated from public news sources. Not financial advice.
