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Coffee prices decline as Brazil's record harvest boosts global supply.
In the past 24 hours, coffee prices have fallen due to Brazil's record coffee harvest, leading to increased global supply. This surge in supply has outweighed concerns about potential El Niño impacts on future crops.
Previous briefings
Record Brazilian coffee crop eases prices, with ICO Composite Indicator Price averaging 262.18¢/lb in September.
The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported a significant decline in global coffee prices in September, attributing the drop to Brazil's record coffee harvest, which improved supply prospects. The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 262.18 US cents per pound in September, down 8.7% from August.
Arabica coffee prices hold near $2.95 despite record Brazil harvest
Arabica coffee futures remain near $2.95 per pound, even with Brazil's record 2026 coffee harvest of 67.6 million processed bags, a 19.6% increase from the previous year. This stability is attributed to ongoing weather concerns, particularly El Niño risks, and strong export demand, with September exports reaching their highest volume in 20 months.
Coffee futures decline as Brazil's strong exports and favorable weather boost supplies.
In the past 24 hours, coffee futures have experienced a downturn due to increased coffee supplies from Brazil. The Brazilian Trade Ministry reported a 20% year-over-year rise in September coffee exports, reaching 236,000 metric tons. Additionally, favorable weather conditions in Brazil have enhanced coffee yields, further contributing to the market's bearish sentiment.
Arabica coffee futures surge 4.07% to $3.0445 per pound amid declining inventories
Arabica coffee futures experienced a significant rally, closing at $3.0445 per pound, a 4.07% increase, driven by a notable decline in ICE-certified Arabica inventories. This tightening supply, coupled with cautious selling from Brazilian producers, has bolstered prices despite strong export figures from Brazil.
Arabica coffee futures decline amid strong Brazilian exports and favorable weather
Arabica coffee futures have fallen due to robust Brazilian exports and favorable weather conditions. Brazil's September coffee exports increased by over 20% year-on-year, leading to a surge in global supply. Additionally, beneficial weather in Brazil has improved crop prospects, further pressuring prices.
Coffee prices decline as Brazil's September exports surge over 20%
Coffee futures experienced a sharp decline on October 7, 2026, following a significant increase in Brazil's coffee exports. The Brazilian Trade Ministry reported a 20.4% year-over-year rise in September exports, reaching 235,800 metric tons, the highest monthly volume in 20 months. This surge in supply, coupled with a stronger Brazilian real, led to long liquidation pressures and a reversal of previous gains in coffee futures.
Coffee prices surge as Brazilian real strengthens and El Niño concerns rise
Over the past 24 hours, coffee prices have experienced a significant rally, with Arabica futures reaching a 3.5-week high and Robusta futures climbing to a 6-week high. This upward movement is primarily driven by the strengthening Brazilian real, which reduces export incentives for Brazilian producers, and growing concerns over potential El Niño impacts on Brazil's coffee crop.
Coffee prices surge amid Brazilian weather concerns and low inventories
Over the past 24 hours, coffee prices have risen due to concerns over dry conditions in Brazil's Minas Gerais region, a key arabica coffee-producing area, which could impact the upcoming harvest. Additionally, the Brazilian real's strength has made exports less attractive, further tightening global supply. These factors, combined with low certified arabica stocks, have contributed to the price increase.
Arabica coffee inventories hit 26-year low, signaling supply chain vulnerabilities.
Arabica coffee inventories on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) have fallen to their lowest level in 26 years, raising concerns about supply chain vulnerabilities. This decline has been attributed to adverse weather conditions in Brazil and increased export activities. The tightening supply has led to a significant rise in coffee prices, with the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reporting a 15.4% increase in July 2026.
Arabica coffee prices stabilize as ICE stocks recover from two-year low
Arabica coffee futures have recently stabilized, with the December contract closing at 288.25 cents per pound on October 1, after dipping below key moving averages earlier in the week. This recovery is attributed to a rebound in ICE-certified Arabica inventories, which had fallen to a two-year low of nearly 330,000 bags by July 20. The increase in certified stocks suggests improved supply conditions, providing support to prices.
Kenya's 2025/2026 coffee auction concludes with Sh841 million payout to farmers.
Kenya's coffee auction for the 2025/2026 season ended with farmers earning Sh841.3 million from 17,765 bags of coffee. The average price per 50-kilo bag was Sh38,140, slightly lower than the previous auction. The new coffee year begins on October 1, with a focus on increasing production and quality.
Arabica coffee futures rise 3.64% to $6,365/ton amid growing Brazil supplies.
Arabica coffee futures for December 2026 on the ICE US exchange increased by 3.64%, reaching $6,365 per ton. This uptick is attributed to growing supplies from Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, which is on track to set a record in September with shipments 34% higher than a year ago.
Arabica coffee prices rise as ICE stocks hit two-year low
Arabica coffee futures have increased due to a significant decline in ICE-certified inventories, which have fallen to their lowest level in over two years. This reduction is attributed to delayed harvesting and slower exports from Brazil, tightening the available supply.
Arabica coffee futures rebound from one-month low amid technical buying and low inventories.
Arabica coffee futures experienced a slight recovery after reaching a one-month low, driven by technical buying and low inventories. The market remains balanced between concerns over supply and demand dynamics.
Arabica coffee futures rise as ICE stocks hit 26-year low, supporting prices.
Arabica coffee futures have risen due to a significant decline in ICE-certified stocks, which have reached a 26-year low of 224,011 bags. This scarcity, coupled with a delayed Brazilian harvest and logistical challenges, has tightened supply and bolstered prices.
Arabica coffee prices rise to $2.78 per pound amid dollar decline and Brazilian rains.
Arabica coffee futures increased by 1.18% to $2.78 per pound on September 25, 2026, reaching a one-week high. This uptick is attributed to a weakening U.S. dollar, which encouraged the closure of short positions in coffee futures, and beneficial rainfall in Brazil's main coffee-producing regions, enhancing soil moisture during a critical period for the 2027/28 crop development.
Arabica coffee futures decline as speculators turn net short amid Brazil's record harvest
In the past 24 hours, Arabica coffee futures have fallen as investors shifted to a net short position, influenced by Brazil's record 2026/27 harvest projections. This shift reflects market concerns over potential oversupply and its impact on prices.
Arabica coffee prices decline to $6,003 per ton amid increased Brazilian supply.
Arabica coffee prices have fallen to $6,003 per ton, the lowest in three months, due to increased supply from Brazil and improved production prospects in major growing regions. This surge in supply has alleviated previous concerns about tight inventories, leading to a price correction.
Coffee prices decline as global supplies increase and exchange stocks rise.
Over the past 24 hours, coffee prices have fallen due to expectations of abundant global supplies and rising exchange stocks. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) projects a record global coffee crop for the 2025/26 season, leading to a surplus and downward pressure on prices. Additionally, significant shipments from Brazil are expected to boost exchange stocks, further weighing on prices.
Arabica coffee futures decline 1.46% to $2.76 amid global supply concerns
Arabica coffee futures fell 1.46% to $2.76 per pound on September 21, 2026, influenced by expectations of a record global coffee harvest and favorable growing conditions in major producing countries like Brazil and Vietnam. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) projected a 4.4% increase in global production for the 2025/26 cycle, reaching 183.6 million bags.
Arabica coffee futures rebound as U.S. dollar weakens, but global supply concerns persist.
Arabica coffee futures experienced a modest recovery due to a weaker U.S. dollar, which encouraged short covering. However, the broader market remains under pressure from forecasts of record global coffee production and an anticipated surplus in the 2025/26 crop year. Additionally, Brazil's coffee harvest is progressing slowly, with only 64% completion as of mid-July, potentially affecting short-term supply.
Coffee futures decline as Brazil's record harvest eases supply concerns
Recent market movements indicate a bearish trend for coffee futures. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported a significant 15.4% increase in the Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) in July 2026, averaging 287.26 US cents per pound. This surge was driven by supply concerns, adverse weather conditions in Brazil, and shrinking Arabica inventories. However, the arrival of Brazil's 2025/26 coffee crop has eased these supply concerns, leading to a correction in prices.
Arabica coffee futures decline 1.9% over three consecutive days amid rising Brazilian production.
Arabica coffee futures have fallen by 1.9% over the past three trading sessions, reaching their lowest point since late June. This decline is attributed to expectations of increased coffee production in Brazil, the world's largest producer, which is replenishing global inventories and easing previous price pressures caused by weather-related disruptions.
Coffee futures decline nearly 10% amid profit-taking and supply concerns
In the past 24 hours, coffee futures have experienced a significant decline of nearly 10%, primarily driven by profit-taking activities and concerns over an anticipated surplus in the 2026/27 season. The International Coffee Organization's projection for record global production has removed the weather premium that had previously supported prices.
Coffee futures decline as Brazil's 2026/27 harvest outlook improves
Arabica coffee futures have fallen by 4.35% following an upgraded forecast for Brazil's 2026/27 harvest, indicating a larger-than-expected supply. This revision has alleviated previous supply concerns, leading to a decrease in prices.
Arabica coffee futures rebound to $1.925 per pound after recent lows
Arabica coffee futures have stabilized at $1.925 per pound after reaching a one-month low of $1.864. This recovery is attributed to technical buying and low buying interest, offsetting a general decline in commodity markets and ample supply.
Arabica coffee futures decline as Brazilian real strengthens, impacting prices.
Arabica coffee futures experienced a slight decline after reaching a one-week high, influenced by the strengthening Brazilian real. The real's appreciation reduced the appeal of Brazilian coffee exports, leading to a pullback in futures prices. Additionally, the market remains attentive to Brazil's upcoming crop flowering and potential weather impacts.
Arabica coffee futures decline as traders plan significant Brazilian shipments to ICE.
Arabica coffee futures have experienced a decline as traders plan to deliver substantial volumes of Brazilian coffee to the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) warehouses. This influx is expected to boost ICE-certified stocks, which have been at 26-year lows, potentially leading to downward pressure on prices.
Arabica coffee futures drop below 290¢ amid record Brazilian exports and favorable weather.
Arabica coffee futures have declined below 290 cents per pound, influenced by record Brazilian exports and improved weather conditions. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reports a global production surplus, further pressuring prices.
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