USD/JPYUSDJPY
Daily Market Briefing
Latest briefing
Bank of America revises USD/JPY forecast to 152, citing improving yen fundamentals.
Bank of America has upgraded its outlook on the Japanese yen, shifting from a bearish to a neutral stance and lowering its end-2026 USD/JPY forecast from 157 to 152. This adjustment reflects improved structural factors in Japan, including narrowing bank loan-deposit gaps, rising real interest rates, and stronger equity performance, which could attract capital inflows and support the yen. However, persistent rate differentials between Japan and the U.S. remain a challenge for the yen's appreciation.
Previous briefings
USD/JPY rises 0.22% to 158.415 yen amid reduced BOJ rate hike expectations.
In the past 24 hours, USD/JPY has increased by 0.22%, reaching 158.415 yen. This movement is attributed to a decline in expectations for immediate Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hikes and increased dollar buying by Japanese importers. Additionally, Bank of America Securities has revised its end-2026 USD/JPY forecast to 152, citing improving structural flows and potential catalysts for yen appreciation.
USD/JPY rises to 157.97 as yen weakens against major currencies
Over the past 24 hours, USD/JPY has strengthened, reaching 157.97, with intraday fluctuations between 157.44 and 158.30. This movement reflects a general weakening of the Japanese yen against major currencies.
USD/JPY declines for fourth consecutive day amid yen strength and Fed rate cut expectations.
Over the past 24 hours, USD/JPY has fallen for the fourth consecutive day, driven by a combination of yen strength and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. A weak ADP private payrolls report has fueled speculation of a Fed rate cut, pressuring the US dollar. Additionally, the Japanese yen has strengthened due to expectations of Bank of Japan tightening, following two policymakers dissenting at the latest meeting and a resilient Tankan survey.
USD/JPY remains steady at 157.33 after BoJ's 0.25% rate hike.
The USD/JPY pair is trading at 157.33 following the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) 0.25% rate hike, bringing the key rate to 1.25%, the highest level in 31 years. Market participants had anticipated a more aggressive tightening approach, leading to a muted reaction in the currency pair. The Federal Reserve's higher interest rates compared to Japan continue to support the U.S. dollar against the yen.
Bank of America revises USD/JPY forecast to 152, citing yen strengthening catalysts.
Bank of America has updated its USD/JPY forecast to 152 from 157, highlighting potential catalysts for yen appreciation. These include a rise in USD/JPY to 160, Japan's 10-year government bond yield approaching 3%, and Brent crude prices falling below $90 per barrel. The bank also notes suspected Japanese FX intervention of up to ¥10 trillion between late April and early May.
USD/JPY rises to 158.44 as BOJ's cautious stance dampens rate hike expectations.
The USD/JPY pair climbed to 158.44, with the Japanese yen weakening by approximately 0.5%, following the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) latest Summary of Opinions. The BOJ's cautious tone regarding future interest rate hikes has cooled market expectations for an October increase, leading to a depreciation of the yen.
USD/JPY rises above ¥158.50 as traders price in 70% chance of Fed rate hike
The USD/JPY pair has surged past the ¥158.50 mark, driven by heightened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike. Market participants now anticipate a 70% probability of the Fed increasing rates, up from 50% last week, bolstering the US dollar against the yen.
USD/JPY tests 160 amid intervention concerns; yen steadies after five-session slide.
In the past 24 hours, USD/JPY has approached the 160 level, prompting market attention due to potential intervention risks. The Japanese yen has stabilized after a five-session losing streak, supported by remarks from Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama regarding yen weakness concerns. Traders are closely monitoring intervention risks as the pair nears the 160 threshold.
USD/JPY falls 1% on Friday; 'death cross' signal expected next week
On Friday, September 26, 2026, USD/JPY declined by 1%, nearing its largest single-day drop in three weeks. This movement confirmed a technical breakdown, with the pair crossing below a key trendline that had supported gains since April 2025. A 'death cross'—where the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average—is anticipated to be confirmed early next week, marking the first such occurrence since March 25, 2025. This pattern suggests a potential reversal of the 17-month bullish trend. Additionally, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has expressed support for a stronger yen, aligning with the Bank of Japan's monetary policy stance.
USD/JPY retreats from 159 amid dollar weakening; trades at 158.13.
In the past 24 hours, USD/JPY has declined from 159 to 158.13, influenced by a temporary dollar weakening. This movement follows a recent test of the 159 level, attributed to a short-term technical correction after the dollar's support from rising U.S. Treasury yields.
USD/JPY drops nearly 2 yen after officials express yen weakness concerns
On September 25, 2026, USD/JPY declined by approximately 1.876 yen (1.181%) to 157.010 yen, following statements from Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressing concerns over yen weakness. This marks a significant reversal after the pair had risen nearly 7 yen over the previous ten days. Katayama indicated that market misconceptions exist and anticipates a near-term reversal in excessive yen selling.
USD/JPY remains steady at 157.45 amid Fed's hawkish stance and BOJ's cautious approach.
Over the past 24 hours, USD/JPY has maintained a steady position around 157.45. This stability is influenced by the Federal Reserve's hawkish signals indicating potential future rate hikes, while the Bank of Japan's cautious approach to monetary policy continues to weigh on the yen.
USD/JPY drops over 1 yen after Bank of Japan conducts rate check ahead of Silver Week.
In the past 24 hours, the USD/JPY pair declined by more than 1 yen following the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) currency rate check, raising speculation about potential intervention before Japan's Silver Week holiday. The pair fell from approximately 158 yen to 156.732 yen, while the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) decreased to 100.205 from 100.215.
USD/JPY remains stable at 153.60 amid expectations of Bank of Japan rate hike
Over the past 24 hours, the USD/JPY currency pair has maintained a steady position around 153.60. Market participants are closely monitoring the Bank of Japan's upcoming monetary policy meeting, anticipating a potential 25 basis point rate hike. This expectation has led to a shift in speculative positioning, with traders now net long on the Japanese yen for the first time since February.
USD/JPY declines to 153.58 amid BOJ rate hike expectations and carry trade unwinding.
Over the past 24 hours, USD/JPY has fallen to 153.58, the lowest level in seven months. This decline is driven by increasing market expectations of a Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hike and the unwinding of yen carry trades. The DXY index also weakened, trading at $98.75, as traders await upcoming U.S. inflation data.
USD/JPY plunges to seven-month low below 153.00 amid intensified BoJ rate hike expectations.
In the past 24 hours, the USD/JPY pair has fallen to a seven-month low below 153.00, driven by escalating expectations of an imminent Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate hike. This shift has prompted carry traders to unwind positions, contributing to the yen's strength.
USD/JPY rises 0.3% to 154.01 amid growing Bank of Japan rate hike expectations.
In the past 24 hours, USD/JPY has increased by 0.3%, reaching 154.01. This movement is driven by heightened expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates at its upcoming meeting. Market participants are anticipating a 25 basis point hike to 1.25%, up from 52% a month ago.
USD/JPY drops 0.35% to 153.379 amid Bank of Japan rate hike expectations.
The USD/JPY pair declined by 0.35% to 153.379 on September 9, 2026, driven by market anticipation of a potential interest rate increase by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). This expectation has led to a strengthening of the Japanese yen against the US dollar.
USD/JPY drops to 7-month low near 153.80 amid rising BoJ rate-hike expectations
The USD/JPY currency pair has declined to a seven-month low near 153.80, driven by increasing expectations of a Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike in September 2026. This shift in market sentiment has bolstered the Japanese yen, leading to a significant depreciation of the US dollar against the yen.
USD/JPY slips to 154.35 as US payrolls boost Fed hike odds, yen strengthens.
In the past 24 hours, USD/JPY declined to 154.35, influenced by stronger-than-expected US payrolls data that increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike. This development has led to a strengthening of the Japanese yen, contributing to the pair's downward movement.
JPMorgan warns $103 billion yen short positions could push USD/JPY to 142.
JPMorgan has highlighted a significant risk in the USD/JPY market, noting that the unwinding of approximately $103 billion in yen short positions could lead to a substantial appreciation of the yen, potentially driving USD/JPY down to the 142 level. This situation arises from the current market positioning and expectations surrounding Japanese monetary policy.
USD/JPY slides to 157.25 amid yen gains and intervention speculation.
Over the past 24 hours, USD/JPY has declined to 157.25, influenced by yen appreciation and market speculation about potential Japanese Ministry of Finance (MoF) intervention. The yen's strength is also supported by expectations of a Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike.
USD/JPY trades at 158.92, down 0.79% amid mixed Fed and BoJ signals.
Over the past 24 hours, USD/JPY has experienced a slight decline, trading at 158.92, down 0.79%. This movement reflects a balance between the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and the Bank of Japan's cautious approach. Recent comments from BoJ board member Takata emphasize the need for rate hikes to prevent inflation overshooting, while discussions between BoJ Governor Ueda and U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent have reignited expectations for BoJ tightening, strengthening the yen. Simultaneously, elevated Treasury yields and a stronger U.S. dollar, driven by Fed rate hike bets, provide support for the pair, capping the yen's strength.
USD/JPY hits 160.295, highest since July 31, 2026.
The USD/JPY pair has surged to 160.295, marking its highest level since July 31, 2026. This rise is driven by expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh, widening the interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan. The Bank of Japan's cautious stance on tightening policy contrasts with the Fed's anticipated actions, contributing to the yen's weakness.
USD/JPY retreats from one-month high as bullish bias persists below 160.00
In the past 24 hours, USD/JPY has retreated from a one-month high of 160.20, currently trading around 159.80-159.75. This pullback follows a five-day winning streak, with the pair now consolidating below the key 160.00 level. The fundamental backdrop remains favorable for the US Dollar, supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September and escalating US-Iran tensions. However, the Japanese Yen is bolstered by rising bets for faster interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which may limit further downside for USD/JPY.
USD/JPY breaches 160 as Fed's Warsh hints at rate hike; yen under pressure.
The USD/JPY pair has risen above the 160 mark following Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish comments, suggesting potential rate hikes to combat inflation. This development has intensified downward pressure on the Japanese yen, which remains vulnerable due to the widening interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan.
USD/JPY breaches 160.00, raising intervention concerns amid carry trade resurgence.
In the past 24 hours, USD/JPY has surpassed the 160.00 threshold, prompting renewed interest in carry trades. This upward movement has reignited discussions about potential intervention by Japanese authorities to curb yen depreciation.
USD/JPY surges to 160.082 yen, first breach above 160 since July 31 intervention.
The USD/JPY pair has risen to 160.082 yen, surpassing the 160 mark for the first time since the July 31 intervention by Japan and the U.S. This movement is primarily driven by hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, which have heightened expectations for a September rate hike. Additionally, strong U.S. economic data, including a 3.7% year-over-year increase in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, have bolstered the U.S. dollar.
USD/JPY rises to 159.70 amid US rate differentials and risk-off sentiment.
Over the past 24 hours, USD/JPY has strengthened, reaching 159.70, driven by persistent US-Japan rate differentials and a broad risk-off sentiment. This trend is further supported by declining commodity prices, reinforcing the carry trade appeal of the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen.
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