Bearish
TD Securities maintains bearish NZD outlook, forecasts AUD/NZD at 1.22 by year-end.
TD Securities continues to hold a bearish stance on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), citing that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) tightening measures are largely priced in, and NZD positioning has normalized. They expect the AUD/NZD pair to remain supported above 1.20, with a year-end forecast of 1.22. Despite broader US Dollar (USD) weakness, they see a high threshold for NZD/USD to sustain gains above 0.60.
Key points
- TD Securities maintains a bearish NZD bias, anticipating AUD/NZD to stay above 1.20, with a year-end forecast of 1.22.
- Market expectations align with the RBNZ's latest guidance, anticipating another rate hike at the upcoming meeting.
- Recent NZ data releases have not provided sufficient evidence to deviate from the RBNZ's latest OCR guidance.
- The NZ Q2 non-tradable CPI was more muted than headline, suggesting potential convergence of NZ inflation toward global levels.
Sources
AI-generated from public news sources. Not financial advice.
