Bearish
TD Securities maintains bearish AUD/NZD outlook, forecasting 1.22 by year-end.
TD Securities continues to hold a bearish stance on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), citing that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) tightening cycle is largely priced in, and NZD positioning has normalized. They expect AUD/NZD to remain supported above 1.20, with a year-end forecast of 1.22. The firm also notes that the bar for NZD/USD to sustain gains above 0.60 remains high, despite broader US Dollar weakness.
Key points
- TD Securities maintains a bearish NZD bias, expecting AUD/NZD to stay above 1.20, with a year-end forecast of 1.22.
- Market pricing for RBNZ rate hikes appears elevated compared to other central banks, suggesting limited room for further NZD-positive surprises.
- The NZ Q2 non-tradable CPI was more muted than headline, indicating potential for inflation to converge lower toward the rest of the world in the coming months.
Sources
AI-generated from public news sources. Not financial advice.
