Bearish
Arabica coffee futures decline to $3.00 per pound amid improved Brazil harvest outlook
Arabica coffee futures have fallen to $3.00 per pound, influenced by expectations of a larger Brazilian harvest and a potential global surplus in the 2026/27 season. Despite these projections, export delays in Brazil and logistical issues in Colombia are keeping certified arabica stocks tight until November.
Key points
- Brazil's 2026/27 coffee harvest is estimated at around 75 million bags, a 17.2% increase from the previous season, suggesting a potential surplus.
- Rabobank forecasts an 8.9 million-bag surplus for the 2026/27 season, indicating a comfortable global coffee balance.
- Despite the surplus, export delays in Brazil and earthquake-related disruptions in Colombia are expected to keep ICE-certified arabica stocks tight until November.
- The market remains sensitive to weather patterns, with concerns about El Niño potentially affecting future harvests.
Sources
- Coffee futures slip back into negative territory, Reuters poll forecasts Arabica at ¢300 and Robusta at $3,900 by year-endComunicaffe International · August 26, 2026
- Coffee Supply Looks Fine, But Beans Are Arriving LateFinimize · September 1, 2026
- Coffee Price Surge Enters ‘Meme-Stock Territory’ Amid Weather FearsYahoo Finance · July 7, 2026
- Arabica Coffee Futures at Over 2-Week HighTradingView News · August 31, 2026
AI-generated from public news sources. Not financial advice.
