Bearish
Coffee futures decline to $2.98/lb amid improved global supply forecasts
Coffee futures prices have fallen to $2.98 per pound, down from a peak of $3.75 in January 2026. This decline is attributed to improved global supply forecasts, particularly a significant increase in Brazilian Arabica production expected in the 2026-2027 season. The National Supply Company (Conab) anticipates a 17% increase in Brazilian coffee supply, with Arabica production projected to rise by over 23%.
Key points
- Customer ordering activities have picked up, with many roasters actively rebuilding their decaffeinated coffee inventories after a challenging 2025.
- The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reports a 14.7% decrease in coffee exports from Africa in March 2026, primarily due to a 29.7% decline in Ethiopian exports.
- Vietnam's coffee exports increased by 25.1% in March 2026, reaching 4.3 million bags, marking the country's largest-ever March export volume.
Sources
AI-generated from public news sources. Not financial advice.
